An election analyst who has correctly predicted the US Presidential election victor for more than 40 years has offered his view on the impact of independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy on this year’s White House race. History professor Allan Lichtman of the American University in Washington, DC, has dashed Kennedy’s hopes of entering the Oval Office and said he will become increasingly insignificant as November looms closer. Describing Kennedy as “a third party candidate,” he said the nephew of former President John F. Kennedy will have minimal impact on either Joe Biden or Donald Trump.
Mr. Lichtman also shared his thoughts on President Biden’s prospects and said, “A lot of things could go wrong.” The history expert explained that he has devised a prediction system, which he calls the “13 Keys to the White House.” He holds the candidates to a list of 13 criteria based on historical analysis rather than surveys or polling. One criterion involves third-party candidates, but he does not believe Mr. Kennedy, or any other contender, poses a threat to the two major players.
Overall, Lichtman believes Biden has the early advantage. He said the President currently possesses the “incumbency key” and the “contest key,” meaning he is the sitting Commander-in-Chief and he faced no competition for his party’s nomination.
Known as the Nostradamus of Presidential elections, Lichtman devised his system in collaboration with Vladimir Keilis-Borok, one of the world’s leading earthquake predictors. He believes that if a sitting President meets six of the 13 criteria, he will be re-elected; if not, his opponent will win. The first criterion asks whether the President’s party has a majority in the House of Representatives after the midterm elections, which President Biden does not.
Further criteria consider whether the incumbent has steered a healthy economy, avoided social unrest, led a successful military venture, and remained clear of personal scandal. They also factor in the President’s primary opponent and ask if they are charismatic or considered a national hero.
