Putin’s war in Ukraine, which he says was provoked by NATO expansion towards Russia’s borders, seems to have backfired.
Founded in 1949, in the devastated aftermath of World War 2, NATO (the North Atlantic Treaty Organization) is an alliance created to oppose Soviet advance into Western Europe. Starting with 12 member nations, it has now ballooned to 32, with Sweden and Finland joining recently in response to the invasion of Ukraine.
The alliance was seen to be weakening due to the lack of unifying purpose and disputes over financial matters, but after Russia crossed into Ukraine in force in February 2022, the organization, whose relevance was increasingly under scrutiny at the time, suddenly seemed as vital as ever. The war re-invigorated the organization as it finally faced the thing it was formed for: A war with Russia on European soil.
Now it’s fighting to ensure that Ukraine survives long enough to realize its ambition of joining the alliance. So far, the effort has involved tens of billions in aid and equipment funded from NATO countries to Ukraine to aid the effort. However, should Ukraine join NATO, the alliance would be obligated to defend it using boots-on-the-ground and assets-in-the-field.
On paper, Russia has no hope of winning a fight against a fully deployed NATO force. Russia has only a single aircraft carrier, while NATO has sixteen in aggregate. NATO’s forces also beat Russia’s tank compliment by four-to-one, and has three times more airborne fighters.
However, according to Allesandro Minuto-Rizzo, NATO’s former Deputy Secretary General, allowing Ukraine to join NATO would be “dangerous,” as it would open the possibility of a nuclear exchange between the United States and Russia. Ukraine, he said, can be better protected by staying outside the alliance. He warned that such discussions could provoke a “stupid” move in the ongoing war.
Other NATO officials expressed openness to the idea, but not so long as the war is going on.
