Q3 Growth Validates Trump Strategy

President Trump’s economic policies propelled U.S. GDP to a robust 4.3% growth in Q3 2025, smashing economists’ dour predictions and proving conservative strategies deliver real results for American families. This figure, covering July through September, was driven by strong consumer spending, surging exports, and increased government outlays, partially offsetting investment declines. The data affirms underlying economic strength despite a softening labor market and complications from a partial government shutdown.

Story Highlights

U.S. GDP surged 4.3% annualized in July-September 2025, beating lowered expectations amid tariff and recession fears.
Consumer spending rose 3.5%, exports jumped 8.8%, and government spending increased 2.2%, driving broad-based growth.
The Federal Reserve’s three rate cuts supported expansion despite a softening labor market at 4.6% unemployment.
Growth echoes the 2018 Trump-era resilience during trade wars, validating tariffs and deregulation.
Government shutdown creates data gaps, but core figures affirm economic strength under Trump leadership.

Q3 GDP Exceeds Expectations

The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported 4.3% annualized GDP growth for the third quarter of 2025, covering July through September. This figure surpassed economists’ lowered forecasts amid persistent worries over tariffs, inflation pressures, and potential recessions. Consumer spending increased by 3.5%, exports surged 8.8%, and government outlays rose 2.2%. These drivers partially offset a decline in investment, showcasing broad resilience in key sectors. The data, released December 23, underscores policy effectiveness in uncertain times.

Q3 GDP of 4.3% was boosted over a percentage point by the weird trade situation. (See yellow boxes below). Artificially low imports and "high" exports did make GDP look better.

But keep in mind: Consumption was strong in Q3 at +3.5%. (see green box below)

Bottom line: This a… pic.twitter.com/AMgpZObeVE

— Heather Long (@byHeatherLong) December 23, 2025

Key Drivers Fuel Trump’s Economic Momentum

Consumer spending led the charge with a 3.5% pace, reflecting American families’ confidence despite mixed sentiment polls. Exports delivered an impressive 8.8% gain, bolstering trade balances amid tariff implementations. Government spending rebounded 2.2% through state, local, and defense boosts after prior contractions. Federal Reserve actions, including three benchmark rate cuts throughout 2025, provided critical support. This combination mirrors patterns from Trump’s first-term trade policies, where growth persisted despite globalist doomsaying.

Labor Market Softens But Holds Steady

November 2025 data showed unemployment at 4.6% with only 64,000 job additions, signaling a cooling labor market. Despite this softening, the economy avoided a cliff, as CBS analyst Javier David noted, crediting Fed easing and pro-growth prescriptions. Modest job gains sustained expansion without reigniting inflation spirals seen under prior mismanaged fiscal regimes. Workers benefited from wage pressures in blue-collar sectors, aligning with conservative priorities for American employment over foreign labor imports.

Partial government shutdowns created gaps in related metrics like monthly inflation, complicating contemporaneous analysis. LA Times commentary labeled some figures unreliable due to these voids, expected to linger for months. Yet core GDP components remained intact, affirming underlying strength.

Policy Context and Views

Tariff proposals and AI disruption fears intensified early 2025 recession talks, echoing 2018-2019 trade war volatility under Trump’s prior administration. Growth then endured, much like now, validating protectionist measures that prioritize U.S. industries. Fed rate cuts mirrored 2019 easing to avert slowdowns, while defense spending hikes reflected fiscal discipline favoring national security.

CBS framed the report as evidence against tariff doom-and-gloom, with Javier David stating the economy has not fallen off a cliff. LA Times urged caution on data quality amid shutdown impacts, warning against partisan spins. Optimistic views credit policy and Fed synergy; pessimistic takes highlight investment drags and gaps. Overall, the 4.3% print bolsters confidence for holiday spending and long-term deregulation gains.

Watch the report: What a 4.3% GDP increase shows about the state of the U.S. economy