The U.S. Secretary of State has appealed directly to China to dissuade Iran from shutting the Strait of Hormuz, warning the move would be “economic suicide” for Tehran and cause global oil market chaos.
At a Glance
- On June 22, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio urged China to pressure Iran against closing the Strait of Hormuz following U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear sites
- Iran’s parliament approved a motion to block the Strait, though final approval rests with the Supreme National Security Council
- Rubio called a shutdown “economic suicide” for Iran and warned it would trigger retaliation from the U.S. and allies
- The Strait handles roughly 20% of global oil and gas transit, with 45% of China’s oil imports passing through it
- IMF and Goldman Sachs caution that even a short-term closure could send Brent oil prices above $100 per barrel, fueling global inflation
Why China Matters in This Crisis
Rubio’s appeal reflects China’s critical role in the Strait’s economy. Iranian oil flows to China are massive—accounting for 45% of its imports—and a disruption would hit Beijing’s energy security hard. According to Reuters, Rubio emphasized that China “heavily depend[s] on the Strait of Hormuz for their oil,” urging Beijing to act diplomatically to prevent further escalation.
What Happens If the Strait Closes
A full blockade would choke off roughly 20% of global oil supplies, with prices potentially surging past $100 per barrel, according to Goldman Sachs. Projections warn prices could spike to $150 or higher if the closure persists. The IMF cautioned that this could trigger worldwide inflation, disrupt shipping lanes, and destabilize global growth.
Can Iran Follow Through?
While Iran’s parliament backed the measure, experts note that enforcing a full blockade would be self-defeating. The Strait remains vital to Iran’s own exports, and closure would risk alienating key allies like China. Historically, Tehran has issued similar threats but never executed a total shutdown, as noted by Times of India.
The Stakes Ahead
With tensions already high following U.S. military action in Iran, the outcome may now hinge on Beijing’s diplomatic stance. If China intercedes, Tehran could reconsider. If not, oil markets face potential turmoil—and the U.S. warns that allied forces are prepared to respond militarily if necessary.
Global markets are watching anxiously as energy security, international diplomacy, and economic stability now balance on a knife’s edge in the Strait of Hormuz.
