This week, Fox News released its first “Power Rankings” for the 2024 election which outlines the state of play for House and Senate races as well as the current state of play in the presidential race.
According to Fox, Republicans are well-positioned to retake the Senate. A total of 34 Senate seats are in play in 2024, eight of which Fox rates as competitive.
With Republicans needing only 2 seats to retake the majority, 2024 could play in the Republicans’ favor, with three Senate Democrats, Sherrod Brown of Ohio, Joe Manchin of West Virginia, and Jon Tester of Montana, facing an uphill battle to retain their seats.
According to Fox, these three races are the GOP’s best chance to flip the Senate in 2024.
But Fox also believes that Republicans have a slight chance in Arizona where Independent Senator Krysten Sinema will not only be facing a Republican challenger but also a Democrat, Arizona Rep. Ruben Gallego. Fox contends that Sinema and Gallego may split the Democrat vote, increasing the chance of the Republican candidate winning the race.
But that might depend on who Arizona Republican primary voters choose as Sinema’s challenger. If gubernatorial loser Kari Lake runs and wins the nomination, Republicans will likely lose the support of independents and moderates in the general election.
While the Wall Street Journal reported that Senator Sinema is preparing to run for reelection in 2024, on the outside chance that she doesn’t, the Republicans may have a harder time in Arizona, especially if the GOP nominates someone like Kari Lake, according to Fox.
The other competitive seats, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, will likely be harder for Republicans to flip.
NRSC Chair Senator Steve Daines said the GOP will do “whatever it takes” to recruit Senate candidates that can win not just the primary but the general election.
Meanwhile, in the House, Fox notes that with such a slim majority, the Republicans will have to run a near-perfect national operation if they hope to hold the House in 2024.